Welcome!

Open Source Cloud Authors: Yeshim Deniz, Pat Romanski, Liz McMillan, Elizabeth White, Zakia Bouachraoui

News Feed Item

California State Treasurer's Office Commissions Municipal Bond Default Probability Model

SACRAMENTO, Calif., Dec. 5, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Responding to market concerns about municipal credit quality, the California State Treasurer's Office has commissioned a San Jose State University economist and a government-bond research group, Public Sector Credit Solutions, to develop a default probability model for city bonds.

"The new model will provide the State an approach to identify troubled cities, and increase the amount of information available to investors and the public," said State Treasurer Bill Lockyer.  As Treasurer, Lockyer serves as chairman of the California Debt and Investment Advisory Commission, which issued the RFP for the work and reviewed proposals.

The San Jose State economist leading the study, Dr. Matthew Holian, specializes in Urban Policy analysis and has previously applied econometric techniques to transportation, emergency services and other municipal policy issues. "City solvency is an important and controversial issue that would benefit from unbiased, statistical modeling. The information generated is essential for households, real estate developers, investors, and other decision makers."

Public Sector Credit Solutions, was founded in 2011 by Marc Joffe, previously a Senior Director at Moody's Analytics. PSCS has collected data on municipal bond defaults over the last 90 years and has published an open source software framework that can be used to create sovereign and municipal bond default probability models.

"News headlines notwithstanding, general obligation bond defaults have been quite rare since the Great Depression, and overall default rates are likely to remain low," Joffe said. "But investors, political leaders and the general public would benefit from more precise measures of municipal bond risk to determine which cities are in the greatest jeopardy."

Joffe and two co-authors correctly predicted that municipal default rates would remain low in a November 2011 report issued by Kroll Bond Rating Agency. These findings contrasted sharply with Meredith Whitney's now discredited December 2010 forecast of "fifty to 100 sizeable defaults."

Unlike symbols issued by rating agencies, the model will generate numeric scores quantifying the likelihood of default. "Just as parents benefit from California's Academic Performance Index scores when considering schools, bond investors will benefit by using our scoring system to evaluate a city's bonds," Joffe said.

The model, which is scheduled for publication in May 2013, will be fully transparent, so that anyone can use it free of charge. The model will be available via a web page and in an Excel workbook.

Contact: 
Marc Joffe
415-578-0558
[email protected]

SOURCE Public Sector Credit Solutions

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

IoT & Smart Cities Stories
Disruption, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, Leadership and Management hear these words all day every day... lofty goals but how do we make it real? Add to that, that simply put, people don't like change. But what if we could implement and utilize these enterprise tools in a fast and "Non-Disruptive" way, enabling us to glean insights about our business, identify and reduce exposure, risk and liability, and secure business continuity?
DXWorldEXPO LLC announced today that Telecom Reseller has been named "Media Sponsor" of CloudEXPO | DXWorldEXPO 2018 New York, which will take place on November 11-13, 2018 in New York City, NY. Telecom Reseller reports on Unified Communications, UCaaS, BPaaS for enterprise and SMBs. They report extensively on both customer premises based solutions such as IP-PBX as well as cloud based and hosted platforms.
Digital Transformation: Preparing Cloud & IoT Security for the Age of Artificial Intelligence. As automation and artificial intelligence (AI) power solution development and delivery, many businesses need to build backend cloud capabilities. Well-poised organizations, marketing smart devices with AI and BlockChain capabilities prepare to refine compliance and regulatory capabilities in 2018. Volumes of health, financial, technical and privacy data, along with tightening compliance requirements by...
We are seeing a major migration of enterprises applications to the cloud. As cloud and business use of real time applications accelerate, legacy networks are no longer able to architecturally support cloud adoption and deliver the performance and security required by highly distributed enterprises. These outdated solutions have become more costly and complicated to implement, install, manage, and maintain.SD-WAN offers unlimited capabilities for accessing the benefits of the cloud and Internet. ...
Discussions of cloud computing have evolved in recent years from a focus on specific types of cloud, to a world of hybrid cloud, and to a world dominated by the APIs that make today's multi-cloud environments and hybrid clouds possible. In this Power Panel at 17th Cloud Expo, moderated by Conference Chair Roger Strukhoff, panelists addressed the importance of customers being able to use the specific technologies they need, through environments and ecosystems that expose their APIs to make true ...
Business professionals no longer wonder if they'll migrate to the cloud; it's now a matter of when. The cloud environment has proved to be a major force in transitioning to an agile business model that enables quick decisions and fast implementation that solidify customer relationships. And when the cloud is combined with the power of cognitive computing, it drives innovation and transformation that achieves astounding competitive advantage.
DXWorldEXPO LLC announced today that "IoT Now" was named media sponsor of CloudEXPO | DXWorldEXPO 2018 New York, which will take place on November 11-13, 2018 in New York City, NY. IoT Now explores the evolving opportunities and challenges facing CSPs, and it passes on some lessons learned from those who have taken the first steps in next-gen IoT services.
"Space Monkey by Vivent Smart Home is a product that is a distributed cloud-based edge storage network. Vivent Smart Home, our parent company, is a smart home provider that places a lot of hard drives across homes in North America," explained JT Olds, Director of Engineering, and Brandon Crowfeather, Product Manager, at Vivint Smart Home, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
In an era of historic innovation fueled by unprecedented access to data and technology, the low cost and risk of entering new markets has leveled the playing field for business. Today, any ambitious innovator can easily introduce a new application or product that can reinvent business models and transform the client experience. In their Day 2 Keynote at 19th Cloud Expo, Mercer Rowe, IBM Vice President of Strategic Alliances, and Raejeanne Skillern, Intel Vice President of Data Center Group and G...
The current age of digital transformation means that IT organizations must adapt their toolset to cover all digital experiences, beyond just the end users’. Today’s businesses can no longer focus solely on the digital interactions they manage with employees or customers; they must now contend with non-traditional factors. Whether it's the power of brand to make or break a company, the need to monitor across all locations 24/7, or the ability to proactively resolve issues, companies must adapt to...